Key Takeaways
- Affordability constraints (HAI < 100, payment/income > 30%) create demand ceilings regardless of demographics.
- Institutional capital affects 3% of SFR stock nationally but 15-25% in targeted Sun Belt submarkets.
- Supply-demand reversal follows a predictable four-phase pattern—leading indicators provide 12-36 months of warning.
- Deal structure (leverage, rate type, underwriting discipline) determines outcomes more than market timing.
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Test Your Knowledge
1.What was Austin's approximate pipeline-to-stock ratio at its peak in 2022, and what threshold signals danger?
2.In the severe stress test scenario, what rent decline and vacancy increase should you model?
3.Which investor profile fared worst in Austin's 2023-2024 supply-demand correction?