Demographic Analysis Exercises

Using the following data, calculate 5-year population CAGR and rank the metros from fastest to slowest growth. Metro A: 2019 population 1,450,000; 2024 population 1,620,000. Metro B: 2019 population 680,000; 2024 population 755,000. Metro C: 2019 population 2,200,000; 2024 population 2,180,000. Metro D: 2019 population 520,000; 2024 population 610,000. Metro E: 2019 population 3,100,000; 2024 population 3,280,000. After calculating CAGR, answer: Which metro would you eliminate from further consideration and why? Which metro shows the strongest absolute growth vs. percentage growth? What additional data would you need before selecting a top market?

A target metro received the following domestic migration flows last year. From New York metro: 4,200 filers, average AGI $112,000. From Chicago metro: 2,800 filers, average AGI $88,000. From Los Angeles metro: 1,900 filers, average AGI $95,000. From local region: 3,500 filers, average AGI $52,000. Outflows: 5,100 filers departed, average AGI $61,000. Tasks: (1) Calculate net filer migration. (2) Calculate net AGI migration (total income gained minus total income lost). (3) Calculate the average income of in-migrants vs. out-migrants. (4) Interpret: Is this metro gaining or losing economic capacity? What housing type demand does this income profile suggest? (5) Estimate the housing units needed for these new households assuming an average filer represents 1.8 persons and average household size is 2.5.

Calculate the HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) for the following metro's employment distribution. Healthcare: 18%. Professional/Business Services: 15%. Government: 14%. Retail Trade: 12%. Education: 10%. Manufacturing: 9%. Leisure/Hospitality: 8%. Construction: 7%. Other: 7%. HHI = sum of squared shares (as decimals). Tasks: (1) Calculate HHI. (2) Rate diversification (below 0.10 = well diversified, 0.10-0.18 = moderate, above 0.18 = concentrated). (3) Identify the primary risk: which sector could cause the most damage if it contracted 20%? (4) Compare to a metro with these shares: Technology 28%, Healthcare 14%, Government 12%, Retail 10%, Other 36%. Which metro has higher concentration risk?

Build a demographic scorecard for ten metros using the following criteria and scoring. Award 3 points for "Strong," 2 for "Moderate," and 1 for "Weak" on each factor. Population Growth (5-yr CAGR): Strong > 2%, Moderate 0.5-2%, Weak < 0.5%. Net Migration: Strong > 10K/yr, Moderate 2-10K/yr, Weak < 2K/yr or negative. Job Growth (3-yr CAGR): Strong > 3%, Moderate 1.5-3%, Weak < 1.5%. Income Growth: Strong > 4%/yr, Moderate 2-4%/yr, Weak < 2%/yr. Affordability (Price/Income): Strong < 3.5, Moderate 3.5-5.0, Weak > 5.0. Select ten metros of your choice using data from FRED and Census Reporter. Complete the scorecard and identify your top 3 markets. Document your data sources and the date of each data pull for reproducibility.